A.    Philippines

Inflation for the bottom 30% income households in the country recorded a negative inflation rate at 0.4 percent for the month of June 2025. This brings the national average inflation rate for this income group from January to June 2025 to 0.8 percent. In June 2024, the inflation rate was posted at 5.5 percent.  (Table A)

The main driver to the downward trend of the overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households during the month was due to the faster annual decline in the index of the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 2.2 percent from 1.6 percent in May 2025. Moreover, slower annual growth rate in the index of housing, water electricity, gas and other fuels which was recorded at 1.7 percent from 2.5 percent in the previous month also contributed to the continued decline of the overall inflation of the bottom 30% income households. (Source: https://psa.gov.ph/content/summary-inflation-report-consumer-price-index-bottom-30-income-households-2018100-june-2025)
 

B.    Negros Island Region (NIR)

Following the trend at the national level, inflation for the bottom 30% income households in the Negros Island Region slowed down at 0.1 percent in June 2025 from the previous month’s record of 1.3 percent. This brought the national average inflation rate for this income group from January to June 2025 to 1.6 percent. In June 2024, the inflation rate was posted at 5.3 percent.  

During the month, all the provinces in the island region recorded decreases in inflation for the bottom 30% income households compared to the previous month’s record.  (Table A)
 

C.    Province of Siquijor

1.    Overall Inflation

The province’s inflation rate in June 2025 for the bottom 30% income households continued to decline further to -0.8 percent to -0.5 percent in May 2025. This brought the average inflation rate for this income group in the province from January to June 2025 to 0.1 percent. In June 2024, the inflation rate was observed at 6.1 percent. (Table A & B and Figure1)

1.1    Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Overall Inflation

The downward trend of the overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households in June 2025 was brought about by the faster decline on the year-on-year growth in heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at -2.0 percent from -0.9 percent in May 2025. (Table C, 3 & 4)

In contrast, the following indices recorded an increase in inflation from its previous month’s record:

a.    clothing and footwear, 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent;
b.    housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 3.2 percent from 2.2 percent;
c.    health, 1.4 percent from 1.2 percent; and
d.    transport, -0.9 percent from -3.3 percent. (Table C, 3 & 4)

Meanwhile, the indices of the following commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s annual growth rates.

a.    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 0.6 percent;
b.    furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 1.5 percent;
c.    information and communication, 0.6 percent;
d.    recreation, sport and culture, 2.3 percent;
e.    education services, 0.1 percent;
f.    restaurants and accommodation services; 1.1 percent;
g.    financial services, 0.0 percent; and
h.    personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.3 percent. (Table C, 3 & 4)
 

1.2     Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The main contributors to the June 2025 overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households in the province were the following:

a.    food and non-alcoholic beverages with 154.0 percent share or -1.23 percentage point;
b.    transport with 9.6 percent share or -0.08 percentage point; and
c.    financial services with 0.0 percent share or 0.00 percentage point.
 

2.    Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households at the provincial level decline further in June 2025 at -2.3 percent from -1.1 percent May 2025. In June 2024, food inflation was posted at 9.0 percent. (Table D, 9)

2.1    Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Food Inflation

The decline of food inflation in June 2025 was primarily brought about by the faster decline of fish and other seafood index at 16.1 percent from 18.7 percent in May 2025. This was followed by the decrease in inflation of fruits and nuts at 4.6 percent from 9.7 percent. Contributing also to the continued downward trend of the food inflation was the decline in inflation in vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 1.2 percent during the month from 3.9 percent in May 2025. (Table D, 5 & 9)

Moreover, slower growth rate in the sub commodity groups were also observed during the month:

a.    ready-made food and other food products n.e.c., -4.2 percent from 0.0 percent;
b.    rice, -17.5 percent from -15.4 percent; and
c.    milk, other dairy products and eggs, 1.8 percent from 2.4 percent. (Table D, 5 & 9)

In contrast, higher annual increases in the following indices were observed during the month compared to the previous month’s record:

a.    corn, -19.5 percent from -21.8 percent; and
b.    meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 15.4 percent from 14.9 percent; and
c.    sugar, confectionery and desserts, -1.1 percent from -2.1 percent. (Table D, 5 & 9)

The indices of flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals and oils and fats retained the previous month’s annual growth rate of 0.8 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively. (Table D, 5 & 9)

2.2    Main Contributors to the Food Inflation
 

Among the food groups, the main contributors for the food inflation during the month were the following:

a.    cereal and cereal products which includes rice, corn and flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals with 303.9 percent share or -6.99 percentage point;
b.    ready-made food and other food products n.e.c. with 7.6 percent share or -0.17 percentage point; and
c.    sugar, confectionery and desserts with 1.3 percent share or -0.03 percentage point.
 

TECHNICAL NOTES

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI is an indicator of the change in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

Bottom 30% Household

Families that belong in the low-income bracket and the most vulnerable to economic and social difficulties. Based on the “relative poverty” concept, a household whose per capita income falls below the bottom 30% of the cumulative per capita distribution belongs to the low-income group.

One of the common characteristics of households in this income group is that expenditures on food items account for a more substantial proportion of expenditures compared to expenditures on other items. Price changes in food, therefore, would be expected to greatly affect this income group more than any other group.

Uses of CPI
 

•    The CPI is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of peso.  It is a major statistical series used for economic analysis and as monitoring indicator of the government economic policy.
•    Measures the composite change in the consumer prices in various commodities overtime.
 

Computation of CPI

The computation of CPI involves consideration of the following important points:

a.    Base Period – The reference date or base period is the benchmark or reference date or period at which the index is taken as equal to 100.
b.   Market Basket – A sample of the thousands of varieties of goods purchased for consumption and the services availed by the households in the country selected to represent the composite price behavior of all goods and services purchased by consumers.
c.   Weighting System – The weighting pattern uses the expenditures on various consumer items purchased by households as a proportion to total expenditure.
d.   Formula – The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2018) weights.
e.   Geographic Coverage – CPI values are computed at the national, regional, and provincial levels, and or selected cities.
 

Inflation Rate 

The inflation rate is the annual rate of change, or the year-on-year change of CPI expressed in percent. Inflation is interpreted in terms of the declining purchasing power of money.

Note: Statistical tables in excel file are provided as an attachment of this release.

(SGD) JOSELITO C. MAGHANOY
(Supervising Statistical Specialist)/
Officer-in-Charge