A.    Philippines

In July 2025, the national inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households was recorded at -0.8 percent from -0.4 percent in June 2025, exhibiting a continued downward trend in the overall inflation in the country. This brings the national average inflation rate for this income group from January to July 2025 to 0.5 percent. In July 2024, the inflation rate was posted at 5.8 percent.  (Table A)

The main driver to the downward trend of the overall inflation for this income group was the faster annual decline noted in the index of the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at -3.0 percent during the month from -2.2 percent in June 2025. Moreover, slower annual increase was observed in the index of housing, water electricity, gas and other fuels recorded at 0.8 percent during the month from 1.7 percent in the previous month. Contributing also to the continued decline of the overall inflation of the bottom 30% income households was the faster annual decrease in the index of transport at -1.9 percent during the month from -1.2 percent in June 2025. (Source: https://psa.gov.ph/content/summary-inflation-report-consumer-price-index-bottom-30-income-households-2018100-july-2025)
 

B.    Negros Island Region (NIR)

Following the trend at the national level, inflation for the bottom 30% income households in the Negros Island Region continued to slow down in July 2025 at -0.5 percent from 0.1 percent in June 2025. This brings the national average inflation rate for this income group from January to July 2025 to 1.1 percent. In July 2024, the inflation rate for this income group was posted at 5.5 percent.  (Table A)

During the month, overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households in all the provinces of the island region was observed to have a decrease in inflation indicating a continued downward trend from the previous month’s record.

C.    Province of Siquijor

1.    Overall Inflation

The provincial inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households dropped to -1.2 percent in July 2025, from -0.8 percent in June 2025, marking a further decline. This brings the average inflation rate for this income group in the province from January to July 2025 to -0.1 percent. In July 2024, the inflation rate for this income group was observed at 7.0 percent. (Table A & B and Figure 1)
 

1.1    Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Overall Inflation

The continued downward trend of the overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households in July 2025 was brought about by the faster decline in the index of the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at -3.2 percent from -2.0 percent in June 2025. Moreover, slower annual increase was observed in the index of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 1.0 percent during the month from 3.2 percent in July 2025. Also contributing to the continued decline in the overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households was the faster annual decrease in the transport index, which dropped to -1.3 percent in July 2025 from -0.9 percent in June 2025. (Table C)

Furthermore, indices of the following commodity groups recorded a decline during the month:

a.    personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 1.8 percent from 2.3 percent;
b.    furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 0.8 percent from 1.5 percent;
c.    information and communication, 0.0 percent from 0.6 percent; and
d.    education services, 0.0 percent from 0.1 percent. (Table C)
 

However, indices of the following commodity groups posted an increase in July 2025 inflation:

a.    alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 1.0 percent from 0.6 percent;
b.    clothing and footwear, 1.1 percent from 0.3 percent;
c.    health, 2.0 percent from 1.4 percent; and
d.    restaurants and accommodation services; 12.3 percent from 1.1 percent. (Table C)

Meanwhile, the indices of recreation, sport and culture and financial services retained their respective previous month’s annual growth rates at 2.3 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively. (Table C)
 

1.2     Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The main contributors to the July 2025 overall inflation for the bottom 30% income households in the province were the following:

a.    food and non-alcoholic beverages with 161.6 percent share or -1.94 percentage point;
b.    transport with 9.5 percent share or -0.11 percentage point; and
c.    information and communication, education services and financial services, each had 0.0 percent share or 0.00 percentage point.

2.    Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households at the provincial level declined further to -3.5 percent in July 2025 from -2.3 percent in June 2025. In July 2024, food inflation for this income group was posted at 9.8 percent. (Table D, 9)

2.1    Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The continued decline of food inflation in July 2025 was primarily brought about by the faster decline in the index of corn at -21.0 percent from -19.5 percent in June 2025. A faster annual decline was observed in the rice index, which registered -18.4 percent in July 2025 from -17.5 percent in the previous month. (Table D)

Moreover, the faster annual decline noted in the index of fruits and nuts during the month at -1.0 percent from 4.6 percent in the previous month also contributed to the downtrend in the food inflation. The index of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses posted a faster annual decrease at -2.0 percent in July 2025 from 1.2 percent in June 2025. (Table D)

Furthermore, lower indices were noted in following sub-commodity groups over the same period.:

a.    fish and other seafood, 15.5 percent from 16.1 percent;
b.    ready-made food and other food products, -6.0 percent from -4.2 percent; and
c.    flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent. (Table D)

In contrast, higher annual increases in the following indices were observed during the month compared to the previous month’s record:

a.    meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 15.6 percent from 15.4 percent; 
b.    milk, other dairy products and eggs, 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent; and
c.    sugar, confectionery and desserts, 1.7 percent from -1.1 percent. (Table D)

Meanwhile, the index of oils and fats retained its previous month’s annual growth rate at 0.0 percent during the month. (Table D)
 

2.2    Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Among the food groups, the main contributors for the food inflation during the month were the following:

a.    cereal and cereal products which includes rice, corn and flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals with 206.7 percent share or -7.23 percentage point;
b.    vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses with 7.1 percent share or -0.25 percentage point; and
c.    ready-made food and other food products with 6.9 percent share or -0.24 percentage point.
 

TECHNICAL NOTES

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI is an indicator of the change in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

Bottom 30% Household
    
Families that belong in the low-income bracket and the most vulnerable to economic and social difficulties. Based on the “relative poverty” concept, a household whose per capita income falls below the bottom 30% of the cumulative per capita distribution belongs to the low-income group.

    One of the common characteristics of households in this income group is that expenditures on food items account for a more substantial proportion of expenditures compared to expenditures on other items. Price changes in food, therefore, would be expected to greatly affect this income group more than any other group.

Uses of CPI

•    The CPI is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of peso.  It is a major statistical series used for economic analysis and as monitoring indicator of the government economic policy.
•    Measures the composite change in the consumer prices in various commodities overtime.

Computation of CPI

The computation of CPI involves consideration of the following important points:

a.    Base Period – The reference date or base period is the benchmark or reference date or period at which the index is taken as equal to 100.
b.  Market Basket – A sample of the thousands of varieties of goods purchased for consumption and the services availed by the households in the country selected to represent the composite price behavior of all goods and services purchased by consumers.
c.  Weighting System – The weighting pattern uses the expenditures on various consumer items purchased by households as a proportion to total expenditure.
d.  Formula – The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2018) weights.
e.   Geographic Coverage – CPI values are computed at the national, regional, and provincial levels, and or selected cities.

Inflation Rate

The inflation rate is the annual rate of change, or the year-on-year change of CPI expressed in percent. Inflation is interpreted in terms of the declining purchasing power of money.

Note: Statistical tables in excel file are provided as an attachment of this release.
 

(SGD) JOSELITO C. MAGHANOY 
(Supervising Statistical Specialist)/ 
Officer-in-Charge